Highest temperature in London on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market seeks to identify the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 9 June 2026, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Weather Underground. This represents a straightforward meteorological outcome with no discretionary elements once the date passes and official records are published.

London's June temperatures typically range between 18°C and 24°C, though the city has experienced peaks above 30°C during heatwaves in recent decades. The Met Office records show that June 2022 saw temperatures reach 35.1°C in parts of southern England, whilst more typical June days in London remain in the low-to-mid 20s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either unfamiliar with the market or uncertain which temperature band will resolve correctly, rather than indicating genuine confidence that no temperature will be recorded.

Traders monitoring this outcome should track UK weather forecasts as June 2026 approaches, particularly from the Met Office and BBC Weather, which provide the most reliable long-range guidance for London conditions. Atmospheric patterns in late May and early June will determine whether high-pressure systems bring warm continental air or whether Atlantic weather systems deliver cooler, unsettled conditions. The specific settlement window closes at midday on 9 June, meaning only temperatures recorded up to that point count; afternoon heat spikes occurring after noon will not factor into resolution.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in London on June 9? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.