Highest temperature in Paris on May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature brackets, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or uncertainty about which range will ultimately contain the day's peak reading. Settlement depends on historical weather data from Wunderground's records for that specific station and date.

May temperatures in the Paris region typically range between 15°C and 25°C, though extremes outside this band occur irregularly. Over the past two decades, 31 May has seen highs varying from around 18°C in cooler years to 28°C during warmer springs. The 2003 European heat wave and subsequent warm springs provide reference points for understanding tail-risk scenarios, whilst more recent years including 2015 and 2019 offer examples of moderately warm late-May conditions. These historical patterns suggest the most probable outcome clusters in the 20–25°C range, though the flat probability distribution indicates traders have not yet converged on specific expectations.

The primary catalyst affecting this market's resolution is the actual meteorological conditions prevailing across northern France in late May 2026. Traders monitoring seasonal forecasts from Météo-France or the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) issued in the weeks before settlement will gain informational advantage. Atmospheric patterns favouring high-pressure systems or warm air masses from the south would shift probability towards higher temperature ranges, whilst Atlantic weather systems bringing cooler, wetter conditions would favour lower brackets. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 31 May, allowing only same-day resolution once official station data becomes available.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Paris on May 31? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.