Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 31 May 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, with the market seeking to identify which temperature band will contain that day's high. Late May in Seoul typically falls within late spring conditions, with daytime highs ranging between 24–28°C, though variation year-to-year can be substantial depending on whether warm air masses from the south or cooler systems from the north dominate the peninsula.

Historical May 31st data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year volatility. Over the past two decades, recorded highs on this date have ranged from approximately 20°C during cooler, wetter years to 31°C during early heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating the market as insufficiently resolved until nearer the settlement date. Comparable late-May weather patterns in Seoul depend heavily on the East Asian monsoon system's timing and intensity; early onset of warm, humid southwesterly flows can push temperatures sharply upward, whilst delayed monsoon arrival or northerly wind patterns keep readings moderate.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration, typically issued in monthly and sub-seasonal bulletins. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the Pacific influence broader East Asian temperature patterns and will shape spring 2026 expectations. The market's current lack of conviction reflects genuine uncertainty at this distance; meaningful probability shifts will likely follow official seasonal outlooks issued in April and May 2026, as well as any notable anomalies in spring 2025 that might signal similar patterns for the following year.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.