Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s heat on 10 August will be read off the airport station record, with Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table controlling settlement if its figure differs from the summary display. In practical terms, that makes the market a straight test of whether daytime heating at Shanghai Pudong International Airport clears the low- to mid-30s Celsius band that is typical for August, rather than a broader citywide temperature story.[6][16]

The current 0% yes pricing looks anchored to the market’s implied expectation of a modest, bounded peak rather than an extreme heat spike. Comparable August records in Shanghai show highs commonly clustered around 33–35°C, with recent 10 August history on travel and forecast sites also sitting in that range, including 35.5°C for 10 August 2025 in one historical table and about 33–34°C on nearby August dates in other datasets.[15][5][8] That framing suggests traders are treating this as a fairly ordinary late-summer temperature print unless a sharp synoptic change lifts the airport reading materially above seasonal norms.[7][14]

The main catalyst is the day’s local weather evolution rather than any scheduled announcement: cloud cover, showers, and any weakening or strengthening of the subtropical high will determine whether the airport warms enough before afternoon observations top out. Time and Date’s extended forecast for Shanghai shows overcast conditions, flash-flood wording, and very high rain chances, which would usually cap highs and reduce the odds of an outlier reading.[13] The key dependency is the timing of the warmest hourly observation before the settlement window closes, because a late-afternoon spike would still count if it appears first in the Daily Observations table.[6][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.