Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 21 July 2026, with the settlement hinging on the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature thresholds available or treating this as a calibration exercise for meteorological forecasting rather than a binary outcome.

Guangzhou's July climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from Wunderground shows the city regularly records daily highs between 32–35°C during mid-to-late July, with occasional peaks exceeding 36°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 2023 and 2024 July records at Baiyun station demonstrate this narrow band of variability, providing a reliable baseline for assessing which temperature bracket the market has defined. The absence of trading activity at 0% suggests the available ranges may not align with typical July patterns, or traders are awaiting clarification on exact bracket definitions.

The primary catalyst affecting this market is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase forecast for mid-2026, which influences East Asian summer monsoon intensity and regional heat distribution. China's meteorological services typically issue seasonal outlooks by May 2026, providing traders with updated climate models. Additionally, any significant atmospheric anomalies—such as Tibetan high-pressure system positioning or tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea—could shift Guangzhou's July temperatures materially. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration seasonal forecasts and real-time atmospheric pressure patterns as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.