Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 25 May 2026, with settlement dependent on finalised daily meteorological data from the Observatory's official climate records. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any temperature range, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or uncertainty about which bracket will ultimately contain the day's peak reading.

Hong Kong's May temperatures typically range between 28°C and 33°C, based on historical Observatory records spanning decades. The territory experiences warm, humid conditions during late spring, with occasional heat spikes driven by subtropical high-pressure systems moving northward from the South China Sea. Comparable May dates show considerable variability—some years record highs near 30°C whilst others exceed 34°C—making historical precedent a weak predictor without seasonal forecasting data. The absence of crowd probability suggests traders are awaiting clearer meteorological guidance or waiting for the market to mature before committing capital.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts released by the Hong Kong Observatory and international meteorological agencies in the weeks preceding 25 May 2026. The timing of the East Asian summer monsoon onset, tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific, and upper-atmosphere pressure patterns will determine whether the day falls within typical May ranges or experiences anomalous heating. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on the specified date, requiring Observatory data to be finalised before resolution can occur. Any significant weather system tracking towards southern China in late May would warrant reassessment of temperature expectations.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 25? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.