Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 24 July 2026 will determine which temperature band resolves this market. Settlement depends on historical weather data from Wunderground's station records, with the measurement window closing at midday UTC on that date. New York's summer temperatures typically peak in the afternoon, so the final reading will reflect conditions during the warmest hours of the day.

July temperatures at LaGuardia have historically ranged from the mid-70s to the low 90s Fahrenheit, with occasional excursions into the mid-90s during heat waves. The 30-year average high for late July sits around 82°F, though the station has recorded readings above 95°F in roughly one in five years during this period. Recent summers have shown increased frequency of days exceeding 90°F, though this reflects broader climate patterns rather than predictable shifts for any single date.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts released in early July 2026, particularly from the National Weather Service and European weather models, which typically show skill at the 10–14 day horizon. Atlantic hurricane activity and upper-level atmospheric patterns in late July can influence whether high-pressure systems deliver heat to the Northeast or whether tropical moisture and cloud cover moderate temperatures. Historical analogue years—particularly 2019, 2022, and 2023, when late-July heat waves affected the region—provide reference points for extreme outcomes, though no single past summer perfectly predicts conditions on any given future date.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on July 24? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.