Highest temperature in NYC on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak heat recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 3 July 2026, which currently sits at a 0% probability for the highest temperature range in the New York City market. Historical data shows LaGuardia hit 104°F on this date in 2026, surpassing its 1966 record of 101°F, while recent midnight readings reached 94°F, marking the city’s warmest midnight on record. These figures indicate that extreme heat is not an anomaly but a documented reality for early July in Queens, making the current 0% crowd-implied probability appear disconnected from the observed thermal intensity.

Traders should monitor upcoming heat-wave updates from the National Weather Service and any scheduled climate declarations by New York officials, as these catalysts often precede shifts in market sentiment. The Robinhood prediction market for New York City’s daily temperature low on 3 July 2026 also offers a parallel signal, reflecting broader temperature trends that could influence the highest temperature market. Recent Fox Weather reports confirm that both JFK and Bridgeport tied their record highs for the date, reinforcing the likelihood of sustained high temperatures across the region. The market is leaning on the heat-wave catalyst, as evidenced by the 100°F reading at JFK on 2 July and the 104°F peak at LaGuardia, which together suggest a high probability of extreme heat persisting into 3 July.

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Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on July 3? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.