Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 12 June 2026 will fall within one of several defined ranges, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Wunderground. New York City's June temperatures typically range between 75°F and 88°F, though the city occasionally experiences early-summer heat waves that push readings into the low 90s. The current crowd assessment assigns certainty to resolution occurring, reflecting confidence that measurable temperature data will be available from the airport station on that date.

Historical June records for the New York area provide the primary frame for calibrating expectations. Since 1950, LaGuardia has recorded June highs averaging around 79°F, with the warmest June day reaching 96°F in 1994. Traders should note that June typically marks the transition into summer conditions; whilst heat waves do occur, they remain less frequent than in July and August. The distribution of past June temperatures suggests most outcomes cluster between 78°F and 86°F, with temperatures above 90°F representing roughly 10–15% of historical cases.

The key dependency for this market is the accuracy and availability of Wunderground's historical database for the specific date. Traders should monitor whether the data source remains operational and whether any station maintenance or equipment changes might affect readings. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 12 June 2026, allowing sufficient time for daily temperature records to be finalised and published. No scheduled weather events or forecasting announcements will alter the underlying meteorological outcome, making this market primarily dependent on actual atmospheric conditions rather than external declarations.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on June 12? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.