Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28?

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Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 28 May 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's historical data for that specific station. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about temperature ranges or awaiting clearer seasonal patterns before committing capital.

Seoul's late May climate is characterised by late spring conditions transitioning towards early summer. Historical data from Incheon Airport shows May highs typically range between 24–28°C, though extremes occasionally exceed 30°C during warm years. The 2019 May average high was 26.2°C; in 2020 it reached 29.1°C. These variations reflect the influence of high-pressure systems moving northward from the Pacific and the onset of the East Asian monsoon season, both of which create meaningful year-to-year volatility in daily maxima.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasts released in late April and early May 2026, particularly from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which typically issues extended outlooks 10–14 days ahead. The critical catalyst will be whether upper-level ridging (high-pressure systems) establishes itself over the Korean peninsula in late May, which would drive temperatures toward the upper end of the historical range. Additionally, any early monsoon onset or tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific could suppress temperatures below seasonal norms. Current atmospheric indices and model consensus from late May will be the primary drivers of settlement outcomes.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.