Türkiye vs. North Macedonia

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Market context

Türkiye will face North Macedonia in a FIFA International Friendly on Monday, 1 June 2026. The match forms part of the June international window and settles at 17:30 UTC. The 100% implied probability reflects near-certainty that the fixture will proceed as scheduled, with no material risk of cancellation priced into the market.

Historical precedent suggests friendly matches between established UEFA members rarely encounter obstacles once confirmed on the official FIFA calendar. Türkiye and North Macedonia have met twice in competitive qualifying campaigns, most recently in 2021 World Cup qualification, establishing a routine bilateral fixture pattern. Friendly matches between nations at this level carry minimal diplomatic friction or logistical barriers; both federations maintain stable operational capacity and neither nation faces sanctions affecting match scheduling. The settlement window timing—just hours after the final whistle—leaves negligible room for administrative dispute.

Traders monitoring this market should track official FIFA fixture confirmations and any late squad announcements from the Turkish Football Federation (TFF) or North Macedonian Football Federation (FFM) through May 2026. Injury crises affecting either nation's squad could theoretically trigger postponement, though historical data shows such cancellations remain exceptional for friendlies. Weather disruptions at the venue, once confirmed, represent the primary residual risk. The market's current pricing reflects confidence in standard fixture execution; material movement would require either federation to signal withdrawal or force majeure conditions in the days immediately preceding the match.

Methodology

This page tracks Türkiye vs. North Macedonia across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.