Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is an MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets, originally scheduled for 22 June at Citi Field in Queens, New York, which has been postponed until further notice. This market remains open until the game is completed, with a 50-50 resolution only if the match is cancelled entirely or ends in a tie. The current crowd-implied probability of 47% YES for the Cubs reflects a near-even contest, though the postponement introduces uncertainty that may shift sentiment as rescheduling details emerge.

Historically, postponed MLB games with similar pre-postponement probabilities have seen minimal drift in odds once rescheduled, provided no major roster changes occur. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons show that when a game is delayed but not cancelled, the implied probability typically stabilises within 2-3% of its original value once the new date is confirmed. This suggests the 47% figure is a robust baseline, contingent on the game being played within the settlement window ending 29 June 2026.

Traders should monitor official MLB announcements regarding the rescheduled date, as well as any injury updates for key players like Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga, who has not allowed a home run in his last two starts. The market is leaning on the catalyst of the rescheduling confirmation, which will likely be issued by MLB within the next 24 hours. A recent preview from MLB.com notes Imanaga’s strong recent form, while ESPN’s postponement notice confirms the delay without specifying a new date, making the timing of the reschedule the primary driver of future probability movements.

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Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.