Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is an MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox on 22 June at 7:40pm ET, where the market resolves to the winner. With a crowd-implied probability of 41% favouring the Guardians, the odds suggest a slight edge to the White Sox, who are listed at -105 on the moneyline against the Guardians’ -115 [2]. Historical precedent shows the Guardians dominated this matchup earlier in the season, winning 12–3 on 6 March [4], yet the White Sox have been more consistent in home games recently, with a 24–12 record at Rate Field compared to the Guardians’ 22–20 home split [6].

Traders should monitor late-line movements and any announcements regarding pitcher availability, as the Guardians’ run differential (3.97) is notably lower than the White Sox’s (4.64), indicating stronger offensive output from Chicago [6]. The market leans on the catalyst of in-game pitching performance, particularly whether the Guardians can contain the White Sox’s high-scoring offence, which has averaged 4.70 runs per game [6]. According to Sportsbook Wire, backing the favourite remains advisable until the White Sox can consistently secure victories against the Guardians, though caution is warranted given the tight odds [2]. No major political or campaign-finance disclosures are expected to influence this sports market, as it remains purely dependent on game-day variables.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.