UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

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Market context

Allan Nascimento’s flyweight bout with Mitch Raposo is set for the UFC Apex under the UFC Fight Night card headlined by Kape v Horiguchi, with the market resolving on the official winner or to 50-50 if the contest is not completed or is ruled a no contest. The crowd-implied probability sitting at 0% YES suggests the market has either not yet attracted meaningful liquidity or is still treating the outcome as effectively unresolved, rather than assigning a substantive edge to either fighter.

On paper, the matchup has the sort of stylistic contrast that usually produces a clearer price once the final bout sheet is locked in. Nascimento enters as the more experienced finisher, with a record built around submissions, while Raposo is the younger, shorter flyweight and has been the subject of recent UFC scheduling changes after illness forced the bout off an earlier card and onto this June date.[1][3][5][8] That sort of late relocation is the main historical frame to watch: when a fight has already been moved once, traders tend to wait for the official pre-fight status rather than leaning too hard on early assumptions.

The key catalyst is the UFC’s own event-day confirmation of whether both men make it to the cage and whether the bout proceeds as scheduled. Raposo’s illness-related card move is the most relevant dependency in the near term, because any fresh withdrawal, weight issue, or late replacement would shift the market immediately, while a clean walkout keeps attention on tape, recent form, and the bookmakers’ view, which has Nascimento listed as the favourite in early odds.[1][3] In practical terms, this market is leaning on official fight-night declarations more than on broader public polling or outside commentary.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims) across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

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Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.