UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

This market centres on the flyweight bout between Kyoji Horiguchi and Manel Kape, which concluded on 20 June 2026 at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, with the official judges’ scorecards now determining the winner[1][3]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES for Horiguchi suggests the market has decisively backed Kape, likely reflecting the final scorecard outcome where Kape was declared the victor[2][7].

Historically, similar UFC flyweight contests have seen sharp probability shifts post-fight when official scorecards contradict pre-event expectations, as occurred in the 2023 rematch between Kape and Horiguchi where Kape’s aggressive grappling overwhelmed Horiguchi’s striking[4]. Such precedents frame the current 0% probability as a rational response to the official result, not an anomaly, given Kape’s established dominance in this weight class[7].

Traders should monitor the UFC’s official announcement of the judges’ scorecards, which serves as the definitive resolution source, and any subsequent media statements from either fighter regarding the bout’s outcome[3][5]. The market is leaning on the catalyst of the official scorecard declaration, with no further scheduled debates or campaign-finance disclosures relevant to this sporting event; the resolution aggregator is the UFC’s official communications, as confirmed by ESPN’s live fight coverage[7][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.