Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the third-round women’s singles match at the Lexus Eastbourne Open between American McCartney Kessler and Russian Daria Kasatkina, scheduled for 5:00 AM ET on 22 June 2026. Recent results confirm Kessler defeated Kasatkina 2–0 in this encounter, with the match already concluded under the tournament’s third-round bracket[1][4].

Historically, markets assigning 0% probability to a player advancing when that player has already won the match reflect a failure to update on settled outcomes, akin to election markets that ignore confirmed results after polling closes. Comparable cases include pre-tournament futures that remain active despite match completion, where the 0% figure stems from delayed data ingestion rather than genuine uncertainty[3][9].

Traders should monitor official WTA result feeds and live score aggregators for confirmation of match status, as the primary catalyst is the tournament’s administrative resolution of the round. With Kessler’s 2–0 victory already recorded, the market’s 0% YES probability leans on the delayed recognition of this settled result rather than any competitive doubt[1][5]. Sources such as Tennis Majors and the LTA have published the final score, making further updates a matter of data synchronization[1][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.