Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai’s late-June heat is the basic driver here: at Pudong airport, June daily highs typically sit in the high 20s Celsius and climb through the month, with the average daily high rising from about 77°F to 83°F across June. Forecast services for the airport area also point to a warm, humid pattern, with daily highs in the upper 20s to high 30s °C range and little sign of an outright cool day. [1][3][7]

That is why the market’s 0% implied yes price on a 29°C outcome should be read as a very low-confidence tail rather than a firm call on the observed weather. The closest comparable framing is that Shanghai airport June temperatures usually cluster near the high-20s mark, while the market data itself currently places 29°C and 30°C as the leading bands, with 25°C or below effectively dismissed. In historical terms, a single hot afternoon can easily shift the day’s maximum by one bucket, so the settlement hinges more on the day’s peak than on the average conditions. [1][2][8]

The main catalyst traders should watch is the intraday forecast for Shanghai Pudong International Airport, especially any change in cloud cover, rain timing, and wind that could cap the afternoon high before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. In practical terms, the market is leaning on the weather forecast rather than on any scheduled political-style event; the relevant dependency is whether midday heating is strong enough for the airport station to print into the upper-end temperature band before cooling sets in. [3][4][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.