Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Uruguay meet Cabo Verde in a World Cup group-stage match in Miami, with the market currently implying a relatively low **23%** chance on the YES side for the upset outcome. FIFA lists the fixture for 22:00 local time in Miami on 21 June, while ESPN notes Uruguay are expected to be pushing for a win that would move them closer to the knockout rounds.[6][2]

Historically, a probability in this range fits the profile of a live outsider rather than a standard upset punt: Uruguay bring the pedigree of a two-time world champion, while Cabo Verde have a far smaller international track record, so the market is effectively pricing the chance of a shock against a heavyweight.[7][10] Recent Cape Verde coverage has also highlighted the team’s ability to compete in high-pressure settings, which helps explain why the price is not closer to zero even against a more established opponent.[5][8]

The main catalyst for traders is pre-match team-news flow rather than any broader tournament narrative: ESPN has already flagged predicted line-ups, referee details and broadcast timing, and Cape Verde players have held media availability in Florida ahead of the game.[2][8] That means the market is likely to lean most on late declarations about fitness, rotation and tactical selection, with any confirmed changes to Uruguay’s starting XI or a sharper-than-expected Cabo Verde set-up the main drivers of movement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.