Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cleveland Guardians are playing the Houston Astros in a scheduled MLB game at Houston, and the market’s **0% YES** reading is best read as a price on the Guardians rather than a literal game outcome. Current pre-game pricing in the market data and live listings slightly favours Houston, with the Astros around **-132 to -135** and an implied edge built around home-field advantage and the teams’ records, as ESPN lists Cleveland at **41-36** and Houston at **36-42**.[1][2]

That makes this a useful comparison point for how prediction markets can stay pinned near zero even when the underdog still has a live path. In baseball, short-run probabilities move sharply with the starting pitcher, lineup news, and whether the favourite is at home, so a low Guardians price is consistent with Houston entering as the more likely winner on paper rather than the result being settled in advance.[1][2]

For traders, the main catalyst is the confirmed game state: first pitch, whether there is any late lineup or pitching change, and whether weather or postponement risk alters the settlement path. MLB’s game preview and live game coverage show the matchup as underway, which means the market will ultimately track the official final result unless the game is suspended or washed out and later resumed under the market rules.[3][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.