UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Card)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Andre Fili faced Vinicius Oliveira at UFC Vegas 119 on Saturday 20 June 2026 in Las Vegas, with Oliveira overwhelming the veteran gatekeeper via second-round TKO to secure a decisive knockout victory[3][4]. The crowd-implied probability of 100% YES for Andre Fili is therefore factually inverted, as official records confirm Oliveira as the declared winner[4].

Historically, markets assigning absolute certainty to an underdog in a high-stakes bout have collapsed when the favourite’s power and youth proved decisive, mirroring past cases where betting favourites like Oliveira (odds -300) overcame gatekeepers despite pre-fight underdog status[1][2]. Such mispricings typically resolve once the fight concludes, with the market correcting to reflect the official result rather than the initial poll movement.

Traders should monitor the UFC’s official resolution source for confirmation of the TKO outcome and watch for any delayed declarations regarding technical draws or no-contest rulings, though Oliveira’s R2 finish is already documented[3]. The primary catalyst is the UFC’s formal announcement of the winner, which will trigger the market’s settlement to Vinicius Oliveira, not Andre Fili[5]. Recent coverage from RotoWire and CBS Sports confirms the bout’s conclusion and Oliveira’s victory, leaving no ambiguity for the settlement window[7][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Card) across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.