Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong’s reading on 22 June will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily maximum, and the market is effectively a wager on whether the day lands in the upper part of the HKO’s June distribution or stays closer to a more ordinary summer high. AccuWeather’s June forecast for Hong Kong shows highs clustered around 88–92°F, which is roughly 31–33°C, suggesting a fairly warm baseline rather than an extreme-heat outlier.[1]

Recent Junes show why traders should treat the very top temperature bands cautiously. The Observatory says June 2025 was “hot and relatively dry”, with 10 June reaching 35.6°C and equalling the June record maximum, while June 2024 also featured a notably warm spell, including a 29.5°C minimum on 22 June.[6][10] By contrast, the HKO’s June ranking page shows the warmest monthly mean maximum temperatures in June have generally sat in the low 30s, with 32.4°C the highest monthly mean maximum on record, underlining that sustained heat is possible even if daily extremes are less frequent.[3]

For the final price, the key catalyst is the Observatory’s actual day-of weather and how it evolves through the afternoon, when Hong Kong often reaches its peak temperature. Hong Kong had already seen 34.3°C as its hottest day of the year before this market date, which shows the city can clear the low-30s comfortably when conditions align.[2] Traders will be watching whether cloud cover, rain bands or a heat warning pattern keep the maximum near forecast levels, or whether a hotter-than-expected surge pushes the result into the upper brackets.[1][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 22? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.