Highest temperature in NYC on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

LaGuardia’s daytime high on 21 June is the key real-world number here, and the market is effectively asking how hot New York City gets at the airport station during the afternoon peak. With the current crowd-implied probability at 0% for YES, the tape is implying that traders see the eventual top temperature as sitting outside the market’s expected range, rather than landing squarely in it.

Recent comparable June markets point to how fast these contracts can reprice when the forecast shifts. On 19 June, the modal outcome was 82–83°F at 100%, while an 8 June market resolved around 74–75°F at 100%, showing that the same location can move from mild to notably warm depending on the synoptic set-up.[1][2] June climatology at LaGuardia has historically produced highs in the 80s on warm days, but the ceiling can be lower or higher depending on cloud cover, humidity and onshore flow; the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reporting for LGA gives the operational reference point for how these temperatures are tracked.[6][9]

For traders, the catalyst is the forecast path into the settlement window rather than any political calendar, because this is a weather market. The main dependency is whether the heat ridge over the Northeast holds through Sunday into the close, with short-range guidance from the National Weather Service and commercial forecasts such as AccuWeather shaping the final bracket expectations.[8] If the region stays under strong sunshine and light winds, higher bins gain support; if coastal moderation, cloud build or shower activity trims the afternoon maximum, the market can shift quickly away from the hotter outcomes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on June 21? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.