Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington Airport’s 21 June reading is set by the day’s **maximum temperature at Wellington Intl Airport Station**, so the market is really about whether the airport can push beyond the cool, late-autumn norm. BBC Weather had the airport at **15°C** around 01:30 UTC, with **thundery showers** and a **south-south-westerly wind**, which points to a fairly changeable day rather than a settled warm-up.[1]

The comparison point is June climatology: WeatherSpark says Wellington International Airport’s typical June highs sit around the **mid-50s °F** and “rarely” exceed **62°F** (about **16.7°C**), so a result above the high teens is usually uncommon even before accounting for weather-day variation.[2] That makes the present **0% YES** crowd line look anchored to a belief that the airport will stay within a narrow winter range, with only a brief surge needed to move the temperature bucket.

For traders, the main catalyst is the **live airport temperature path** through the rest of the day, rather than any scheduled political-style event; the market resolves off the day’s high as recorded on Wunderground’s Wellington Intl Airport page.[3] Recent MetService commentary also matters as a signal of synoptic conditions: it said Wellington had already **beaten its maximum June temperature on record** with **over 19°C** recorded, showing that unusual winter warmth is possible when the pattern breaks.[4] The immediate watch item is whether the current south-westerly flow keeps temperatures suppressed or whether a transient clearing and warming pulse lets the airport print a higher daily maximum.[1][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

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